Cornyn Maintains Fundraising Edge Over Paxton in High-Stakes Texas Senate Primary

Incumbent Senator Out raises Attorney General by $1 Million Despite Trailing in Polls

U.S. Senator John Cornyn maintained his fundraising advantage over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the second quarter of 2025, raising $3.9 million compared to Paxton's $2.9 million in their contentious Republican primary battle for Cornyn's Senate seat, according to federal campaign finance reports released this week. The incumbent senator now holds $8.5 million in cash on hand, compared to Paxton's $2.5 million, providing Cornyn with a critical financial lifeline as he attempts to overcome a significant polling deficit in what has become one of the most closely watched intraparty contests in the country.

The fundraising disparity underscores the complex dynamics of a race that has divided the Republican establishment, with Cornyn leveraging his institutional advantages and donor network while Paxton capitalizes on grassroots enthusiasm and Trump-aligned conservative support. The March 3, 2026, primary has emerged as a defining test of the GOP's direction, pitting a four-term incumbent against a controversial attorney general who survived impeachment proceedings last year.

The Numbers Game

Cornyn's $3.9 million haul during the April-June period represents a robust showing for the incumbent, who combined his campaign fundraising with contributions to his joint fundraising committee to achieve the total. According to Axios, Cornyn's campaign raised the funds while maintaining $8.5 million in cash on hand, providing him with substantial resources for the eight-month campaign ahead.

The senator's fundraising advantage extends beyond his personal campaign account. A pro-Cornyn super PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, raised nearly $11 million in the second quarter, bringing its total cash on hand to over $12 million, according to Politico. This external support provides Cornyn with additional firepower to compete against Paxton's grassroots appeal.

Paxton, who announced his candidacy on April 8 – just one week into the fundraising period – demonstrated strong initial momentum with his $2.9 million haul. The attorney general's campaign emphasized the grassroots nature of his support, with Paxton stating: "I've been incredibly honored and blown away by the support I've received since launching my campaign. The grassroots movement to fire John Cornyn continues to grow stronger every single day, and this is only just the beginning," according to Fox 4 News.

Polling Deficit Creates Uphill Battle for Cornyn

Despite his financial advantages, Cornyn faces a daunting challenge in the polls. Multiple surveys show Paxton leading by more than 15 percentage points, according to the Texas Tribune. This polling deficit has transformed what might have been a routine reelection campaign into a fight for political survival.

Jasper Scherer, politics editor at the Texas Tribune, analyzed the significance of Cornyn's fundraising edge: "He still has a pretty big financial advantage, and he's absolutely going to have to maintain that going forward just to have any shot of making up that deficit," Scherer told Texas Standard.

The polling disparity reflects broader tensions within the Republican Party between establishment figures and Trump-aligned conservatives. Paxton has positioned himself as an "anti-establishment MAGA warrior made in the image of President Donald Trump's Republican Party," while Cornyn is "downplaying his old guard party credentials, instead highlighting his ties to Trump and the work he's done for the president in the Senate," according to the Texas Tribune.

Super PAC Warfare Intensifies the Competition

The involvement of well-funded super PACs has elevated the stakes and spending in the race. Cornyn's allied super PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, has emerged as a formidable force, with executive director Aaron Whitehead telling Politico: "This first report shows what the armchair pundits fail to realize — this race is only beginning in earnest. With eight months to go before the March primary, Texans for a Conservative Majority is well-positioned to take the fight to Ken Paxton and independently support Senator John Cornyn's re-election".

The super PAC's massive fundraising haul of nearly $11 million in the second quarter demonstrates the establishment's commitment to defending Cornyn's seat. However, Paxton has his own external support, with a pro-Paxton super PAC raising $1.85 million during the same period, according to Axios.

These external groups can raise and spend unlimited amounts, providing both candidates with additional resources beyond their official campaign accounts. The involvement of super PACs suggests that total spending in the race could reach unprecedented levels for a Texas Republican primary.

Financial Constraints and Strategic Challenges

Paxton faces unique financial constraints that could impact the trajectory of his campaign. The attorney general previously estimated he would need to raise $20 million to unseat Cornyn, according to the Texas Tribune. To meet that benchmark, Paxton would need to collect approximately $17 million over the remaining months leading up to the March election.

Federal campaign finance rules create additional complications for Paxton. The Texas Ethics Commission reports that he has an additional $2.8 million in his state campaign war chest, but federal guidelines prohibit direct transfers from non-federal to federal campaigns. However, candidates can return contributions and coordinate arrangements for donors to contribute to their federal accounts, with individual donors allowed to give up to $3,500 per election cycle, according to Fox 4 News.

Cornyn's campaign manager Andy Hemming expressed confidence in their financial position: "We are confident that we are on track to have the necessary resources to communicate to Texas GOP primary voters about Senator Cornyn's conservative record and provide facts about Ken Paxton's repeated mismanagement of his office, ethical failures and funding of radical left wing groups with taxpayer grants," according to The Hill.

Trump's Endorsement Looms Large

Both candidates are aggressively courting President Trump's endorsement, which could prove decisive in the primary. According to Axios, during a recent meeting with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Trump aides indicated that the president would remain neutral in the race before seeing if Cornyn could close the polling gap.

The Trump factor adds complexity to the dynamics of the race. While Paxton has cultivated a closer relationship with Trump's base, Cornyn has worked to highlight his collaboration with the president during Trump's previous term. The eventual endorsement decision could have a significant impact on both fundraising and voter sentiment in the final months of the campaign.

National Implications and Republican Concerns

The Texas primary has attracted national attention due to concerns about electability in the general election. Some Republicans worry that a Paxton nomination could jeopardize the party's hold on the seat, with internal GOP polling indicating that he would trail a hypothetical Democratic candidate in the general election, according to Axios.

These electability concerns have motivated significant establishment investment in Cornyn's campaign. The senator represents a safer bet for Republicans seeking to maintain their Senate majority, while Paxton's controversial past, including his impeachment by the state House on bribery and corruption charges before his acquittal by the state Senate, creates potential vulnerabilities.

Historical Context and Precedent

Cornyn's fundraising challenges reflect the broader difficulty incumbent senators face when confronting well-funded primary challengers. The race recalls previous GOP primary battles, where establishment figures have used financial advantages to overcome initial polling deficits, although success is not guaranteed.

The 2026 primary represents the most serious challenge Cornyn has faced in his four terms in the Senate. His ability to leverage his fundraising advantage effectively will determine whether he can overcome Paxton's early momentum and grassroots support.

The Road to March

As the campaign enters its final eight months, the fundraising disparity provides Cornyn with essential resources to compete in a challenging environment. The senator's $6 million cash advantage, combined with super PAC support exceeding $12 million, creates opportunities for extensive voter outreach and advertising campaigns.

However, Paxton's strong initial fundraising performance and continued polling lead suggest that money alone may not determine the outcome. The attorney general's ability to maintain his grassroots momentum while building the financial resources necessary for a competitive campaign will be crucial to his success.

The race ultimately will test whether establishment financial advantages can overcome populist enthusiasm in the modern Republican Party. With both candidates preparing for an intensive final push, the Texas Republican primary promises to be one of the most expensive and closely watched contests of the 2026 election cycle, with implications extending far beyond the Lone Star State's borders.