U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett holds a commanding eight-point lead over State Representative James Talarico in the first head-to-head poll of the Texas Democratic Senate primary, positioning her as the frontrunner in a race that Democrats view as their best opportunity in nearly four decades to flip a Republican-held Senate seat, according to a survey released by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University. The poll, conducted December 9-11 among 1,600 likely Democratic primary voters, shows Crockett garnering 51% support compared to Talarico’s 43%, with just 6% of voters remaining undecided ahead of the March 3, 2026, primary election.
Last-Minute Entry Reshapes Democratic Field
Crockett’s campaign launch on December 8, 2025, came just hours before Texas’s candidate filing deadline and mere hours after former Congressman Colin Allred announced his withdrawal from the Senate race to instead pursue a newly drawn Dallas-based congressional seat. According to CBS News, Allred explained his decision by stating: “In the past few days, I’ve come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified against the danger posed to our communities and our Constitution by Donald Trump and one of his Republican bootlickers”.
The second-term congresswoman from Dallas has rapidly risen to national prominence through viral confrontations with Republican colleagues and prolific fundraising, making her one of the Democratic Party’s most recognizable figures, the Texas Tribune reported. At her campaign kickoff, Crockett framed her candidacy as a fight against political corruption and self-interest, declaring to supporters that Texans deserve “public servants, not kings,” and arguing that Republican leaders have placed themselves above the people they represent.
Name Recognition Drives Crockett’s Advantage
The Texas Southern University poll revealed that Crockett’s lead stems largely from significantly higher name recognition: 94% of likely Democratic primary voters are familiar with her, compared to 79% for Talarico. The survey also exposed stark demographic divides between the candidates’ support bases. Crockett holds an overwhelming advantage among Black voters and women, with 57% of female voters backing her candidacy. Meanwhile, Talarico maintains stronger support among white and Latino voters, with 52% of male voters favoring the Austin legislator.
“This is a single-digit race before any money has been spent,” a Talarico campaign spokesperson told Newsweek, adding that “polling consistently shows that the more people get to know James, the more they support him”.
Age emerged as another critical fault line: younger voters aged 18-34 favored Talarico by 29 points, while voters over 55 backed Crockett by 25 points. The survey also found that 53% of likely Democratic primary voters believe Crockett would be most successful at mobilizing Democratic-leaning low-propensity voters in a November general election, while 58% believe Talarico would be more effective at convincing Republican voters to cross party lines.
Talarico’s Faith-Driven Progressive Challenge
The 36-year-old state representative entered the race in September 2025, positioning himself as a fresh progressive voice capable of delivering the “innovation, freshness, and uniqueness” that Democrats need to compete in Texas, NBC News reported. A former middle school teacher currently pursuing a Master of Divinity degree, Talarico has gained national attention for combining progressive policy positions with deep Christian faith and his legislative accomplishments, including successfully passing legislation to cap insulin copays at $25 per month.
According to CBS News, Talarico raised a record-breaking $6.2 million in the first three weeks following his campaign announcement, demonstrating significant grassroots enthusiasm. Following Crockett’s entry into the race, Talarico issued a statement declaring: “We’re building a movement in Texas — fueled by record-breaking grassroots fundraising and 10,000 volunteers who are putting in the work to defeat the billionaire mega-donors and puppet politicians who have taken over our state. Our movement is rooted in unity over division — so we welcome Congresswoman Crockett into this race”.
Historic Opportunity Amid Republican Turmoil
Democrats are banking on a confluence of favorable conditions to end their three-decade statewide losing streak in Texas, where no Democrat has won any statewide office since 1994 and no Democratic U.S. Senator has served since 1993. The party views the combination of a midterm election during President Trump’s second term — which historically favors the opposition party — and a potentially divisive Republican primary between incumbent Senator John Cornyn, scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt as creating their best opening since 1988.
Politico reported that Texas Democratic strategist Joel Montfort identified Crockett’s central challenge, noting: “I appreciate her scrappiness and abilities to go toe to toe with her detractors. She is quick witted and quite the firebrand. Her key challenge will be getting the other urban and suburban voters in other cities to appreciate what she brings to the party”. Crockett herself told the Dallas Morning News that she had commissioned polling showing she could win the general election, though Talarico’s campaign said she never actually shared those survey results during their discussion.
Primary Battle and General Election Path
As the March 2026 primary approaches, both candidates face the challenge of consolidating Democratic support while positioning themselves as the strongest general election candidate against whichever Republican emerges from an equally competitive primary, according to reporting from multiple Texas news outlets. With early voting scheduled to begin in just over two months and both campaigns actively building statewide organizations, the Democratic primary will test whether Texas voters prefer Crockett’s national profile and confrontational style or Talarico’s grassroots organizing and faith-based progressive message in their quest to finally break the Republican stranglehold on statewide offices.