Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani Takes First-Ever Lead Over Andrew Cuomo in NYC Mayoral Race
Historic Polling Shift Shows 33-Year-Old Assembly Member Surging Just Two Weeks Before Primary
Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old Democratic Socialist state assembly member, has surpassed former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the first time in any public poll regarding the New York City mayoral race, according to new survey data that indicates a dramatic shift in the Democratic primary just two weeks before Election Day.
The Public Policy Polling survey, conducted between June 6-7, 2025, shows Mamdani leading Cuomo 35 percent to 31 percent among 573 likely Democratic voters—a margin that falls within the poll's 4.1 percent margin of error. The results mark a stunning reversal of fortune for Cuomo, who has maintained consistent frontrunner status since entering the race on March 1, 2025.
Ocasio-Cortez Endorsement Provides Campaign Momentum
The polling surge comes on the heels of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's high-profile endorsement of Mamdani on June 5, 2025, following the candidates' first televised debate. The endorsement from one of the Democratic Party's most recognizable progressive figures has provided significant political star power to Mamdani's grassroots campaign.
"When you run a disciplined, grassroots campaign relentlessly focused on an agenda to address the crises in working people's lives, these are the results," said Mamdani spokesperson Andrew Epstein. "New York City is so close to turning the page on the corrupt politics of the past and winning a future we can afford."
The timing of Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement appears crucial, coming just one day after the June 4 debate, where nine candidates faced off in their first central televised forum. Political observers note that the endorsement likely influenced undecided voters who had not yet made up their minds following the debate performance.
Cuomo Campaign Disputes Poll Methodology and Results
The Cuomo campaign immediately pushed back against the polling results, questioning both the methodology and the survey's independence. Rich Azzopardi, Cuomo's spokesperson, criticized the poll's connection to Mamdani's fundraising activities.
"It's saying that Zohran Mamdani Inc pays for the only polls showing this trend line," Azzopardi said, referencing Mamdani's decision to record a fundraising video for Justin Brannan, whose comptroller campaign commissioned the poll. Azzopardi noted that the video was created after Brannan's team had already commissioned the survey.
The Cuomo campaign pointed to their internal polling conducted during the same timeframe, which showed dramatically different results. A survey by Expedition Strategies found Cuomo leading Mamdani by 12 points, 56 percent to 44 percent, after eight rounds of ranked-choice voting. This stark contrast highlights the ongoing debate about the accuracy of polling in the race.
"We have had a poll in the field at the same time, and our poll showed a race with us maintaining what has now been a consistent double-digit lead for more than three months, which is rare for any NYC Mayoral race in recent memory," Azzopardi stated.
Race Methodology Favors Younger, Tech-Savvy Voters
The Public Policy Polling survey employed a mixed-methodology approach that may have influenced the results in Mamdani's Favor. Thirty-nine percent of responses came from landlines while 61 percent came from text messages—a distribution that reportedly favoured Mamdani given his strength among voters who respond via text.
This demographic advantage aligns with Mamdani's campaign strategy of leveraging social media and digital outreach to engage younger voters. The 33-year-old assembly member has employed slickly produced videos highlighting his progressive platform, which includes proposals for a free bus service and government-run grocery stores.
Political analysts suggest that the text-heavy methodology may better reflect the actual voting population in a Democratic primary, where younger and more progressive voters typically have higher turnout rates than in general elections.
Ranked-Choice Voting Complicates Electoral Mathematics
The June 24 primary will use ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference. This system, implemented in 2021, adds complexity to polling analysis since the survey showing Mamdani's lead did not include a ranked-choice simulation.
A separate poll by Data for Progress, conducted for a Mamdani-allied super PAC, found different results when ranked-choice preferences were factored in. That survey showed Cuomo winning by just 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent, after eight rounds of voting.
The varying results between first-choice preferences and final ranked-choice outcomes suggest that the race's ultimate winner may depend heavily on how supporters of eliminated candidates redistribute their votes. This dynamic has created uncertainty about which polling methodology most accurately predicts the outcome.
Multi-Racial Coalition Building Shows Broad Appeal
Despite being characterized as primarily appealing to white progressive voters, the new polling data reveals that Mamdani is building a more diverse coalition than initially expected. The survey found that 27 percent of Black voters supported Mamdani, along with nearly one-third of Hispanic voters.
Mamdani's strongest support came from white and Asian voters, according to the poll results. This multi-racial appeal contradicts earlier assumptions that his democratic socialist message would primarily resonate with white progressives, suggesting broader cross-cultural acceptance of his economic populist platform.
The demographic breakdown becomes particularly significant when considering New York City's diverse electorate. Cuomo maintained stronger support among Black voters at 42 percent, but Mamdani's showing across multiple racial groups indicates his campaign has successfully expanded beyond its initial base.
Asian American Political Strategy Takes Centre Stage
Mamdani's campaign has deliberately cultivated support within New York City's South and East Asian communities, leveraging his identity as a Uganda-born Indian American. This strategy received a significant boost when State Senator John Liu, a prominent Asian American political figure, endorsed Mamdani's candidacy.
Liu, who immigrated from Taiwan at age five and became the first Asian American elected to citywide office as comptroller in 2010, brings substantial credibility within Asian American political circles. "He has been fighting for progressive public policy and for bringing outer borough immigrants into the heart of our city's politics," Mamdani said of Liu in an interview with Gothamist.
The Asian vote appears increasingly crucial in the tight race. While an Emerson College poll from May showed Asian voters split evenly between Cuomo and Mamdani at approximately 50 percent each, the more recent Data for Progress survey found Mamdani leading Cuomo by 22 percentage points among Asian voters. However, polling experts caution that the small sample size of Asian voters in polls creates high margins of error for this demographic.
Establishment Democrats Struggle to Gain Traction
The poll results reveal the significant challenges facing more traditional Democratic candidates in the race. City Comptroller Brad Lander, despite his citywide platform and substantial campaign spending, garnered only 9 percent support. Lander's struggle is particularly notable given his established progressive credentials and history with New York's left-wing movement.
Former City Comptroller Scott Stringer, who has deep roots on Manhattan's Upper West Side, received just 5 percent support. City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, despite high-profile endorsements from New York Attorney General Letitia James and the municipal labor powerhouse District Council 37, attracted only 4 percent of respondents.
The poor showing by these experienced politicians underscores how the race has crystallized into a contest between the youngest and oldest candidates in the field. This dynamic suggests that voters are choosing based on generational and ideological contrasts rather than traditional measures of political experience or institutional support.
Socialist Movement Gains Unprecedented Electoral Momentum
Mamdani's rise represents a significant breakthrough for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and the broader socialist movement in New York City politics. Six DSA-affiliated state legislators formally endorsed his campaign in March, including state Senators Jabari Brisport and Kristen Gonzalez.
"We are building a grassroots campaign unlike any other, and today's endorsements from six legislators on the frontlines of the fight for a more affordable New York add to our growing momentum," the Mamdani campaign stated. The endorsements came from lawmakers who are part of DSA's nine-member "State Socialists in Office" bloc in Albany.
Notably, DSA's New York City chapter voted to endorse Mamdani even before he officially launched his campaign. This early organizational support has translated into substantial grassroots infrastructure, with the campaign reporting that NYC-DSA has added approximately 1,200 new members since Mamdani's campaign launch in late October.
However, not all DSA-affiliated lawmakers have endorsed Mamdani. State Senator Julia Salazar and Assembly Member Emily Gallagher have declined to approve, with Gallagher expressing concerns about ensuring the race doesn't result in either a Cuomo or Eric Adams administration.
Religious and Ethnic Communities Draw Battle Lines
The intensifying race has highlighted deep divisions within New York City's religious and ethnic communities, particularly around issues related to Israel and antisemitism. Orthodox Jewish groups have begun rallying behind Cuomo's candidacy, despite lingering resentment over COVID-19 restrictions he imposed while governor.
Cuomo has worked to repair relationships with Orthodox and Hasidic communities, meeting with Agudath Israel leaders and holding conversations with leaders of the Chabad and Bobov movements. His outreach has proved successful, with Orthodox groups in Queens and Brooklyn neighbourhoods, including Boro Park, Crown Heights, Flatbush, and Williamsburg, providing coveted endorsements.
"In the past, our groups have endorsed different candidates," stated two Crown Heights groups in a joint endorsement. "We believe it is vital to stand together and speak with one voice. Andrew Cuomo is the only candidate who can stop Zohran Mamdani in the primary."
A Brooklyn-based Jewish news site characterized the race as "'Jew targeted' Cuomo against 'jihadi' Mamdani," reflecting the inflammatory rhetoric that has emerged around these issues. This polarization highlights how identity politics and foreign policy positions are influencing local electoral dynamics.
Campaign Fundraising and Public Matching Funds
Mamdani's grassroots fundraising approach has proved surprisingly effective in New York City's public financing system. The candidate raised more than $640,000 from thousands of small-dollar donors as of the last filing deadline, which unlocked millions more in public matching funds.
This fundraising success contradicts initial scepticism about whether a democratic socialist candidate could compete financially with more established politicians. The small-dollar donor strategy aligns with Mamdani's populist messaging and demonstrates significant grassroots enthusiasm for his candidacy.
The public matching funds system, which provides multiple dollars in public money for each small private contribution, has effectively amplified Mamdani's fundraising capacity. This dynamic has allowed his campaign to compete with better-funded opponents while maintaining ideological purity around rejecting corporate contributions.
Policy Platform Emphasizes Economic Populism
Mamdani's campaign has centered on economic populist policies aimed at addressing New York City's cost-of-living crisis. His platform includes proposals for free bus service, government-run grocery stores, and comprehensive affordable housing initiatives. These policies resonate with voters who consistently rank housing costs and inflation as their primary concerns.
Critics have questioned whether Mamdani has articulated realistic funding mechanisms for his ambitious policy proposals. However, polling suggests that voters are less concerned about detailed implementation plans than they are about having a candidate who prioritizes their economic struggles.
The campaign's focus on "bringing costs down and making life easier" has proven to be effective messaging in a city where median rent prices have reached historic highs. This economic message appears to transcend traditional demographic boundaries, contributing to Mamdani's multi-racial coalition building.
Media Coverage and Digital Strategy
Mamdani's campaign has leveraged social media and digital content creation to gain attention in the crowded race. The candidate has utilized professionally produced videos to effectively highlight his platform and engage with voters, particularly younger demographics who primarily consume news through digital channels.
This digital-first strategy has allowed Mamdani to compete for media attention despite having less traditional political infrastructure than his opponents. The approach aligns with broader trends in political campaigning, where social media engagement often translates into grassroots organizing capacity.
The campaign's digital sophistication has also enabled rapid response to political developments, such as quickly capitalizing on the Ocasio-Cortez endorsement through coordinated social media content and email outreach to supporters.
Implications for November General Election
If Mamdani wins the Democratic primary, he would likely appear on the November ballot representing both the Democratic Party and the Working Families Party. This dual-party support could provide advantages in the general election, particularly among progressive voters who might otherwise consider third-party alternatives.
The general election would feature a complex ballot including incumbent Mayor Eric Adams running as an independent, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, and independent candidate Jim Walden. If Cuomo loses the Democratic primary, he would still appear on the November ballot as an independent candidate.
This unusual electoral configuration could create opportunities for a progressive candidate like Mamdani to build a winning coalition, particularly if moderate votes split between Adams and Cuomo. However, it could also enable a Republican victory if Democratic-aligned votes fragment across multiple candidates.
Looking to Election Day
Early voting for the June 24 primary begins on Saturday, June 14, and will continue for nine days leading up to Election Day. The candidates are scheduled to face off in another debate on Thursday, June 12, providing additional opportunities for last-minute momentum shifts.
Both leading campaigns are preparing for intensive ground game operations during the early voting period. Mamdani's grassroots infrastructure, built through DSA organizing and small-dollar donor engagement, may provide advantages in voter turnout operations.
Cuomo's campaign, backed by more traditional Democratic Party infrastructure and higher-dollar fundraising, is likely to focus on targeted outreach to reliable Democratic primary voters, particularly older and more moderate constituencies where he maintains stronger support.
The ranked-choice voting system means that both campaigns must also focus on securing second and third-choice preferences from supporters of other candidates, adding complexity to traditional get-out-the-vote strategies.
Historical Context and National Implications
Mamdani's surge represents part of a broader national trend of younger, more progressive candidates challenging established Democratic Party figures. Similar dynamics have played out in congressional races and other municipal elections across the country, suggesting shifts in generational and ideological composition within the Democratic coalition.
The New York City mayor's race often serves as a bellwether for national Democratic politics, given the city's prominence and diverse electorate. A Mamdani victory would likely encourage similar progressive challenges to moderate Democrats in other major cities.
The race also highlights ongoing tensions within the Democratic Party between populist economic messaging and more traditional liberal approaches to governance. These ideological debates have national implications as Democrats prepare for future presidential and congressional elections.
A Race Transformed
The dramatic polling shifts that place Zohran Mamdani ahead of Andrew Cuomo for the first time represent a fundamental transformation in the New York City mayoral race. What began as a contest heavily favouring the former governor has evolved into a competitive battle between generational and ideological opposites.
With just two weeks remaining until the June 24 primary, both campaigns face intensive pressure to mobilize their supporters and convince undecided voters. The ranked-choice voting system adds uncertainty to traditional polling analysis, meaning that the outcome may depend as much on voter turnout and preference distribution as on first-choice support.
The results will have implications far beyond New York City, potentially influencing progressive electoral strategy nationwide and shaping debates within the Democratic Party about economic populism versus moderate pragmatism. For now, the 33-year-old democratic socialist has achieved what few thought possible just months ago: leading one of the nation's most prominent municipal races against a former governor with decades of political experience.