How One Texas County Is on Track to Outpace Entire States
A new economic forecast predicts that Collin County, a rapidly growing suburban expanse north of Dallas, will become a national economic powerhouse by 2050, with an output projected to surpass the entire current-day economies of several U.S. states. The study, commissioned by the Texas Association of Business (TAB) and conducted by Prestige Economics, attributes this monumental growth to a boom in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, data centers, and automation, which is transforming North Texas into a critical hub for the nation's digital infrastructure. This surge is fueled by billions of dollars in investments from tech giants, cementing the region's role as an engine of innovation for Texas and the United States.
The report's findings paint a vivid picture of a future where Collin County is not just a participant in the Texas economy but a primary driver of it. According to the analysis, by 2050, the county is projected to account for 10% of Texas’s total GDP, 7% of its workforce, and 6% of the state's population. To put this in perspective, Collin County’s projected economic output in 2050 would rival Missouri's entire GDP in 2024 and be three times larger than Oklahoma's.
This dramatic ascent reflects a broader trend of a tech-driven transformation across Texas. “Texas’s dedication to innovation has positioned communities, rural and urban, across our state to be ahead of the curve on economic growth driven by the technology sector,” Glenn Hamer, President and CEO of the Texas Association of Business, said in a statement. He described the projected growth as "a testament to the incredible strength of technology and artificial intelligence to boost productivity, job creation, and manufacturing".
The Digital Gold Rush
The engine driving this economic transformation is the explosive growth in artificial intelligence, accompanied by the immense digital infrastructure necessary to support it. North Texas has emerged as a primary national hotspot for data center investment, attracting companies eager to build the backbone for the AI revolution.
Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics and the author of the study, emphasized that the productivity gains from AI and automation are a powerful catalyst for long-term growth.
"As artificial intelligence, automation and data center expansions reshape the way work is done, the resulting productivity gains will become a powerful driver of economic growth in Texas through 2050," Schenker stated. "This is a story about the rising importance of technology and how tech growth can drive fundamental economic transformation".
The physical evidence of this boom is rising across the North Texas landscape. In Plano, Aligned Data Centers is constructing a $700 million, 425,000-square-foot data center for Lambda Inc., a cloud computing firm backed by AI chip leader Nvidia. The facility is designed to host Lambda’s AI Cloud platform, powered by Nvidia's advanced processors, and is expected to be operational in 2026.
This project is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. Blackstone's data center company, QTS, is investing $780 million in two new data center projects in the region and expanding another. These investments are part of a wave of development, with plans for four additional large data center campuses spanning more than 1,000 acres in cities such as Red Oak, Grand Prairie, Lancaster, and Garland. This influx of capital and infrastructure solidifies the region's position at the forefront of the digital economy.
"Made in America"
The tech boom in North Texas extends beyond data storage to the very creation of the technology itself. The region is becoming a pivotal site for manufacturing the high-tech components that power the global digital economy, from semiconductors to AI supercomputers.
Nvidia, a key player in the AI space, recently chose North Texas as a crucial location for its initiative to build AI supercomputers entirely within the United States. The company's investment, part of a $500 billion four-year plan, aims to create a fully domestic supply chain, from chip fabrication in Arizona to system testing and supercomputer assembly in Texas facilities located in Dallas and Houston.
"The engines of the world’s AI infrastructure are being built in the United States for the first time," said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia. "Adding American manufacturing helps us better meet the incredible and growing demand for AI chips and supercomputers, strengthens our supply chain, and boosts our resiliency."
Meanwhile, Texas Instruments (TI), a company with a 90-year history in the state, is undertaking one of the most significant manufacturing investments in the nation in Sherman, a city within the North Texas region. TI is investing what could eventually total $30 billion to build up to four new semiconductor fabrication plants. The first of these fabs is expected to begin production in 2025, creating thousands of jobs and reinforcing the domestic supply chain for critical processing chips.
Governor Greg Abbott hailed the investment as a landmark moment for the state. "In addition to bringing billions of dollars in capital investment and thousands of new jobs to North Texas, this historic investment will keep Texas a national leader in semiconductor manufacturing while also strengthening the domestic semiconductor supply chain," Abbott said.
A Foundation of Growth
Collin County's projected future is built on a strong foundation of past and present growth. The county has long been a major contributor to Texas's economic and population expansion. According to the TAB report, from 2001 to 2023, Collin County’s share of Texas's population growth increased by 56%.
This growth has been supported by the presence of major corporate headquarters, including Toyota, JPMorgan Chase, and Hewlett-Packard, which have established a robust business ecosystem in cities like Plano. While the tech sector is the current catalyst, the broader Texas economy remains resilient. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts that the state will add over 240,000 jobs in 2025, although it noted a recent slowing in job growth that warrants caution.
Looking toward 2050, the trajectory outlined in the study suggests a significant realignment of economic power. The combination of massive private investment, a supportive business climate, and a strategic focus on high-growth industries like AI and semiconductor manufacturing is positioning Collin County and North Texas as a whole to redefine the state's economic standing for generations to come. The developments unfolding today are laying the groundwork for a future in which a single Texas county holds the economic might of an entire state.