India and Pakistan Back from the Brink of a war
Ceasefire Holds After Deadly Attacks, Missile Strikes, and Global Mediation
India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed neighbors, narrowly avoided a full-scale war last week after a sudden and severe escalation of hostilities. The crisis began with a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir and escalated into missile strikes, drone warfare, and cross-border shelling before a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took hold on May 10, 2025. The episode marks one of the most dangerous confrontations between the two countries in decades and has left the region on edge, with both sides warning that the margin for error is now slimmer than ever.
Pahalgam Attack and Rapid Diplomatic Fallout
The latest crisis erupted on April 22, when gunmen killed at least 26 tourists at the Pahalgam resort in Indian-administered Kashmir. The group “Kashmir Resistance,” which India accuses Pakistan of backing, claimed responsibility. Pakistan denied any involvement and called for an independent international probe.
India responded swiftly, suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, closing the Attari border, and ordering Pakistani diplomats and citizens to leave the country. Pakistan retaliated by suspending trade, closing its airspace to Indian flights, and expelling Indian diplomats. Both sides declared each other’s military advisers persona non grata, and tensions soared as border skirmishes erupted along the Line of Control (LoC).
“Any attempt to stop, reduce, or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan under the Indus River Treaty would be responded to with full force and might,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned, underscoring the gravity of India’s suspension of the IWT.
Airstrikes, Missiles, and Drone Warfare
On the night of May 6–7, India launched “Operation Sindoor,” a series of air and missile strikes on six sites in Pakistan, including mosques and civilian areas in Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. India claimed the strikes targeted terrorist infrastructure, while Pakistan reported civilian casualties and condemned the attacks as a “blatant act of war”.
Pakistan responded with Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos, targeting Indian military bases, airfields, and missile storage sites in Kashmir and Punjab. Both sides exchanged missiles and drones, with India claiming to have destroyed key Pakistani air defense systems and Pakistan reporting the downing of Indian fighter jets and drones. The conflict quickly spread beyond Kashmir, with strikes reaching major cities like Lahore and Karachi.
“The entire house shook. Everyone was terrified; we evacuated, took our children, and went up into the hills,” said Muhammad Shair Mir, a resident of Muzaffarabad, after Indian airstrikes hit the city.
By May 9, the fighting had caused significant disruptions: airports were closed in both countries, the Pakistan Super League and Indian Premier League cricket tournaments were postponed, and major economic and diplomatic links were severed.
International Pressure and the Path to Ceasefire
As the violence escalated, international calls for restraint intensified. The United Nations and world leaders urged both countries to de-escalate, while the United States took a leading role in mediation. President Donald Trump announced on May 10 that a ceasefire had been reached after “a long night of discussions” between Indian and Pakistani officials, facilitated by U.S. diplomats.
“While foreign friends can certainly help create a conducive atmosphere, it is Islamabad and New Delhi that will have to do the heavy lifting themselves to secure peace,” Dawn editorialized, reflecting widespread skepticism about the durability of the truce.
Direct talks between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) from both countries followed, and agreements were reached to halt all firing and aggressive actions and consider troop reductions along the border.
Ceasefire Holds, But Tensions Simmer
Since the ceasefire took effect on May 10, hostilities have largely subsided, though both sides remain wary. India reopened 32 civilian airports closed during the crisis, and Pakistan resumed air traffic. Each government has claimed victory and issued stern warnings about future provocations.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first address since the conflict, praised the armed forces and insisted that “terror and talks cannot take place together.” He linked any future dialogue with Pakistan to action on terrorism and the status of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. He signaled a hard line on water disputes, stating, “Terror and water cannot flow together”.
Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Major General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, confirmed that Pakistan had hit 26 Indian targets and emphasized that the issue of Kashmir remains central to the dispute. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared a national day of thanksgiving for what he described as a “befitting response” to Indian aggression.
The New Normal, Lowered Thresholds and Fragile Stability
Analysts warn that the recent conflict has obliterated old “red lines” and established a new, more dangerous baseline for future confrontations. Both sides demonstrated a willingness to strike deeper into each other’s territory than at any time since the 1971 war, employing advanced weaponry, including drones and precision-guided missiles.
“India and Pakistan entered a phase of ‘armed coexistence’ with minimal room for diplomacy and a slim margin for error, even with a live and sensitive border,” said Praveen Donthi, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, in an interview with Al Jazeera.
The use of water as a potential weapon, the targeting of economic centers, and the breakdown of traditional diplomatic channels have all contributed to a heightened risk of accidental or intentional escalation.
Decades of Conflict and Unresolved Disputes
The Kashmir conflict, which began after the 1947 partition of British India, remains the core issue fueling India-Pakistan tensions. Both countries claim the region, but control only parts of it. The dispute has sparked three wars and numerous skirmishes, with the local population often caught in the crossfire.
Recent years have seen repeated cycles of violence, including the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis. The 2025 crisis stands out for its intensity, the speed of escalation, and the involvement of new technologies like drone swarms.
Human Cost and Regional Impact
Civilian casualties on both sides have been significant, though exact numbers remain disputed amid claims and counterclaims. India reported killing over 100 “terrorists” in its strikes, while Pakistan stated that 31 civilians, including children, died in Indian attacks. Pakistani officials reported 33 deaths and 76 injuries from Indian strikes, while India claimed 13 civilian deaths from Pakistani fire.
Thousands of residents in affected areas fled their homes, and daily life was severely disrupted. The suspension of trade, closure of borders, and cancellation of major public events have had a lasting economic impact on both nations.
International Reaction and the Role of the United States
The United States played a pivotal role in brokering the ceasefire, with President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaging directly with both governments. While Islamabad acknowledged U.S. mediation, New Delhi downplayed external involvement, preferring to frame the outcome due to direct negotiations.
China also called for restraint and an independent investigation into the Pahalgam attack, reflecting the broader regional and global stakes in any India-Pakistan confrontation.
Uncertain Peace and the Risk of Future Conflict
The ceasefire has brought temporary relief, but the underlying issues remain unresolved. Both sides have hardened their positions on terrorism, Kashmir, and water rights, and the breakdown of diplomatic protocols suggests that future crises could escalate even more rapidly.
“This situation is detrimental to both nations and the region, as even accidental incidents could spiral into a war-like scenario with no safeguards in place,” warned Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group.
The international community continues to urge dialogue and restraint, but the events of May 2025 have left South Asia more volatile and unpredictable than ever in recent memory.