Muslim American Support for Democrats Plummets as Political Loyalties Shift, Poll Shows
New Survey Reveals Dramatic Political Realignment Among Muslim Americans and Mixed Views on Trump Policies
Muslim American support for the Democratic Party has sharply declined, with only 34% now identifying as Democrats, down significantly from previous election cycles, according to a new poll conducted by J.L. Partners in partnership with the Muslim American Leadership Alliance. The survey, conducted in April 2025 and shared with The New York Post, reveals a striking political realignment, with Muslim Americans now equally divided among Democrats (33%), Republicans (33%), and independents (34%). This shift comes after the 2024 election, where 53% of Muslim voters supported Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while President Trump and then-Vice President Harris received 21.4% and 20.3%, respectively.
The Gaza Plan, Divided Opinions
President Trump's controversial proposal to transform Gaza into the "Riviera of the Middle East" has received mixed reactions from Muslim Americans. According to the J.L. Partners poll, a plurality of 49% oppose the plan, which Trump first announced in February 2025. However, 26% supported the idea, with another 16% not offering an opinion.
Trump's proposal involves the United States "taking over the Gaza Strip" and transforming its coastal areas after relocating approximately two million Palestinian residents to neighboring countries. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly backed the plan, Arab nations have "emphatically rejected it," The New York Post reported.
The future of this plan remains uncertain, as The New York Times reports that Trump's "hope for Gaza deal fades as Israel plans major escalation." Netanyahu recently warned of an "intensive" escalation by Israeli forces in Gaza, potentially derailing peace efforts.
"I would like to see the war come to an end, and I believe it will cease at some point that isn't too far off," Trump stated during an April meeting with Netanyahu, according to The New York Times.
Policy Support Beyond Party Lines
Despite mixed feelings about Trump's Gaza proposal, the survey indicates significant Muslim American support for several of his key policies:
62% support removing taxes on tipped income, with only 12% opposing
44% favour additional oil exploration, compared to 25% who oppose it
43% back Trump's plan to deport illegal immigrants, with 33% in opposition
These policy preferences show a community whose political views extend beyond simple party affiliation. Notably, respondents indicated they believe Trump is more likely than former President Biden to broker peace in the Middle East by a narrow margin of 52% to 48%.
A Watershed Moment
The 2024 election marked a dramatic shift in Muslim American voting patterns. According to exit poll data from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), Harris received just 20.3% of Muslim votes, representing a staggering drop from Biden's 69% support in 2020.
The primary beneficiary of this shift was not Trump, who secured 21.4% of Muslim votes, but Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who captured 53% of Muslim support. This unprecedented result highlights the community's discontent with both major parties.
"Astounding numbers," commented Jesse Arm on Twitter, highlighting the surprising level of support for Trump's Gaza proposal among Muslim Americans.
Attitudes Toward the Conflict
The survey revealed complex views about the ongoing conflict in Gaza. When asked which side they supported, 29% of respondents backed Hamas, while 14% favored Israel, and a plurality of 44% supported neither side.
These numbers reflect the nuanced positions within the Muslim American community regarding the conflict, which has intensified over the past year and a half. According to The New York Times, Israel recently violated "a fragile cease-fire in its ongoing 18-month conflict with Hamas, intensifying its attacks on Gaza".
Electoral Implications for 2025 and Beyond
Despite the shift away from the Democratic Party, the poll suggests Democrats may still hold a slight edge over Republicans in congressional races. The survey found that 45% of Muslim Americans plan to support a generic House Democrat, compared to 38% who intend to back a Republican candidate.
A slim majority of 52% view the Democratic Party favourably, while 36% have an unfavourable opinion. These numbers indicate that while Democrats have lost significant ground, they maintain a narrow advantage over Republicans among Muslim voters.
"Democrats have been hoping that Trump's staunch support of Israel could help the party recover lost ground with Muslim Americans. The J.L. Partners poll showed that Dems have managed to regain the edge over Republicans but are still generally below where they were five years ago," The New York Post reported.
Methodology and Sample Demographics
The J.L. Partners survey sampled 503 Muslim Americans between April 10 and 18, 2025, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points. The sample included 278 men and 225 women, providing a representative cross-section of the Muslim American population.
Political Realignment and the 2026 Midterms
As both major parties prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, the Muslim American vote represents a critical and increasingly independent voting bloc. With just a third of Muslim Americans now identifying with each major party and a significant contingent supporting independent or third-party options, political strategists will need to develop targeted approaches beyond traditional party appeals.
The survey suggests that policy positions on both domestic and international issues will play a crucial role in determining Muslim American voting patterns as we advance. As the situation in Gaza continues to evolve and Trump's administration faces both challenges and opportunities in Middle East diplomacy, Muslim American political alignments may continue to shift in response to developing events rather than along established party lines.