Three-Quarters of Americans See Democracy Under Threat as Political Violence Surges, New Poll Reveals

Seventy-six percent of Americans believe democracy faces a serious threat as the nation prepares to celebrate its 249th Independence Day, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on Tuesday, which reveals widespread anxiety about political violence and declining confidence in elected leadership across party lines. The survey, conducted from June 23 to 25 among 1,381 adults nationwide, shows that President Trump's approval rating stands at just 43%, while both congressional parties receive even lower marks from an increasingly disillusioned electorate.

The findings emerge during a particularly turbulent period marked by U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the tragic shootings of two Minnesota state lawmakers and their spouses, events that appear to have heightened public concerns about political stability and violence in American society.

Partisan Views Diverge Sharply

The poll reveals stark partisan divisions in how Americans perceive threats to democratic institutions. According to NPR, 89% of Democrats view democracy as seriously threatened, compared to 80% of independents and 57% of Republicans. This represents a notable shift from previous polling, with Republican concerns dropping significantly since Trump's return to office.

"The drop in concern is largely attributed to Republicans, whose perception of a serious threat decreased from 88% during Biden's presidency to 57% currently," NPR reported, highlighting how partisan identity shapes perceptions of democratic stability.

The survey shows that 92% of Americans who supported Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election see democracy as seriously threatened, while 57% of Trump supporters share this concern, according to The Hill. This 35-percentage-point gap highlights the profound polarization that continues to characterize American political discourse.

Political Violence Emerges as Major Concern

Perhaps even more alarming, 73% of respondents identified politically motivated violence as a major problem facing the nation. This finding takes on particular significance given recent events, including the June 14 shootings that killed Democratic state Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, while critically injuring Democratic state Senator John Hoffman and his wife Yvette.

Time reported that the survey was conducted "in the wake of U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the shootings of two Minnesota lawmakers and their spouses," suggesting these events may have influenced respondents' heightened concerns about political violence.

The data reveals concerning demographic patterns in perceptions of political violence. According to NPR, "Majorities of Latino, Black, and younger voters viewed politically motivated violence as a significant issue, albeit with more than a 10-point gap compared to their white and older counterparts".

"Women with degrees (%) were most likely to categorize it as a major problem, followed closely by individuals aged 60 and above (81%) and white women without degrees (80%)," the survey found.

Trump's Approval Rating Lags Behind Historical Precedents

President Trump's 43% job approval rating places him well below historical norms for presidents in their second terms. According to KIIS-FM, Trump's current approval rating is "significantly higher than the 34% when he left office in 2021". Still, it remains "one percentage lower than his 42% rating in February 2017, the first full month of his first term.”

The data shows Trump's performance across key policy areas receiving lukewarm public support. NPR reported that his approval ratings stand at 41% for foreign policy and 39% for economic matters. His immigration policies, despite being a central focus of his administration, receive similar marks.

Historical context reveals that Trump's struggles are relative to those of his predecessors. KIIS-FM noted that "Trump's February approval rating is also lower than his last 10 elected predecessors," with comparisons showing former President Biden at 57% in February 2021, Barack Obama at 64% in February 2009, and George W. Bush at 64% in February 2001.

Congressional Leadership Faces Historic Low Approval

Both political parties in Congress are experiencing significant public disapproval, though Republicans fare slightly better than their Democratic counterparts. According to NPR, "Congressional Republicans get a 35% rating—the highest recorded by Marist since it began tracking this metric in 2011. Congressional Democrats fared even worse, with a mere 27% approval rating, marking their lowest score in the past seven years".

The internal party dynamics reveal telling patterns about voter sentiment. NPR reported that "while 73% of Republicans approve of their congressional representatives, only 44% of Democrats approve of theirs". This disparity suggests deeper dissatisfaction within the Democratic base about their party's performance in opposition.

"Interestingly, there is no generational divide; older Democrats tended to express greater disapproval of their congressional leaders," according to the survey findings.

NPR's senior political editor Domenico Montanaro characterized the overall mood, stating: "Well, it seems people are pretty uneasy. I mean, three-quarters say that they think American democracy is under threat, and that politically motivated violence is a major problem".

Constitutional Crisis and Authoritarian Concerns

Separate polling data from YouGov provides additional context about Americans' concerns regarding democratic institutions. A June survey found that 56% of Americans believe the country is experiencing a constitutional crisis, with Democrats much more likely than Republicans to agree with this assessment (82% vs. 26%).

The YouGov poll also revealed troubling long-term concerns about the future of American democracy. According to the survey, "38% of Americans think it's very or somewhat likely that within the next 10 years, the U.S. will no longer be a democracy," while similar proportions expect "a total breakdown of law and order (40%), that there will be a civil war (40%), and that there will be a civil war between people who are Republicans and Democrats (40%)".

Perhaps most concerning, YouGov found that only half of Americans (50%) agree the U.S. is a democracy, with 28% disagreeing and 22% uncertain. The survey also showed that 24% of Americans, including 35% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans, believe the country is a dictatorship.

Escalating Political Violence in Historical Context

The current concerns about political violence reflect a documented increase in threats against public officials. Time reported that "more than 9,500 instances of threats and concerning statements against members of Congress, their families, and their staff, were recorded in 2021," representing a sharp increase from "the 3,939 recorded just four years earlier".

Recent high-profile incidents have intensified these concerns. Time noted that "President Donald Trump faced two assassination attempts on the campaign trail last year, one of which left an attendee at his campaign rally dead and two others injured". Other notable incidents include attacks on Representative Nancy Pelosi's husband, Republican Representative Steve Scalise's shooting at congressional baseball practice, and an arson attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's home.

The Minnesota shootings that occurred just before the poll were conducted represent the latest in this troubling trend. The tragic deaths of Representative Hortman and her husband, along with the critical injuries suffered by Senator Hoffman and his wife, have brought the issue of political violence into sharp focus for many Americans.

Demographic and Generational Divides

The polling data reveals interesting patterns across demographic lines. According to The Hill, Generation Z shows "a somewhat lower tendency to acknowledge the threat" to democracy, with 72% perceiving a serious threat compared to 77% of Millennials, 76% of Generation X, and 76% of Baby Boomers and older generations.

Race and education also play significant roles in shaping perceptions. NPR reported that "those most likely to perceive democracy as endangered included individuals who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris and white women, regardless of their educational attainment". Specifically, the survey found that "85% of college-educated white women and 81% of those without degrees identified the threat," compared to lower percentages among other demographic groups.

The survey methodology, as detailed in Marist documentation, involved "1,381 adults nationwide and was carried out from June 23 to June 25" with "a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online" and carries "a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points".

International Context and Foreign Policy Implications

The poll's timing coincides with significant international developments, particularly U.S. military action against Iran. Time noted that the survey was conducted "in the wake of U.S. airstrikes on Iran," which may have influenced public perceptions about democratic stability and political violence.

Trump's foreign policy approval rating of 41% suggests a mixed public reception of his international approach, despite his administration's emphasis on projecting strength abroad. The confluence of domestic political violence and international military action appears to be contributing to broader anxiety about American democratic institutions.

Historical Trends and Future Implications

The current polling data shows both continuity and change compared to previous measurements. According to The Hill, "there has been no statistically significant change in the proportion of respondents who view democracy as endangered compared to a previous survey conducted in April 2025, where 77 percent expressed similar concerns".

However, longer-term trends show some fluctuation. The survey found that "in January 2025, 73 percent believed that there was a serious threat, marking a decline from 2023, when 87 percent held that perspective". This suggests that while concerns remain elevated, they may be somewhat influenced by current events and political circumstances.

Media Coverage and Public Discourse

The widespread coverage of these polling results across multiple news outlets—from NPR and PBS to local stations like VPM and iHeart—demonstrates the significance media organizations place on understanding public sentiment about democratic institutions. The consistent reporting across different platforms suggests broad recognition that these findings represent important indicators of American political health.

The poll's release ahead of the July 4th holiday adds symbolic weight to its findings, as Americans prepare to celebrate the founding of their democracy while expressing unprecedented concerns about its future stability.

Implications for American Politics

The polling data reveals a nation grappling with fundamental questions about its democratic future. With three-quarters of Americans expressing concerns about democracy and political violence, elected leaders face the challenge of governing effectively while addressing deep-seated public anxiety about the stability of institutions.

The stark partisan divides evident in the data suggest that perceptions of democratic threats are increasingly filtered through political identity, potentially complicating efforts to build consensus around reforms or security measures. The low approval ratings for both Trump and congressional leadership indicate widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of politics across party lines.

As the nation moves forward, these findings serve as a critical barometer of public confidence in American democratic institutions. The combination of concerns about political violence, constitutional crisis, and governmental effectiveness suggests that restoring public faith in democracy will require sustained effort from leaders across the political spectrum. The upcoming months will test whether elected officials can address these concerns while navigating the deep polarization that continues to define American political discourse.