A fragile truce announced by the US President encounters a rocky start, with both sides accusing each other of breaching the agreement hours after it took effect.
President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday evening, bringing an end to what he dubbed "THE 12 DAY WAR." Still, the fragile agreement immediately faced violations from both sides, prompting an expletive-laden rebuke from the US leader who brokered the deal. The truce, which officially took effect at 7:00 AM Israel time on Tuesday, came after nearly two weeks of escalating military exchanges that killed over 600 people and raised fears of a broader Middle East conflict.
The ceasefire announcement followed Iran's retaliatory missile attack on a US military base in Qatar. It came just 48 hours after American forces struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo. Despite both countries initially accepting the agreement, violations were reported within hours, with four Israeli civilians killed in Beersheba by Iranian missiles launched just before the ceasefire deadline.
From Proxy Conflict to Direct Confrontation
The current crisis escalated dramatically on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched what it described as a comprehensive operation against Iran's nuclear program and military infrastructure. According to multiple sources, the strikes targeted key atomic facilities. They eliminated several members of Tehran's military leadership, marking a significant escalation in the decades-long shadow war between the two regional powers.
The conflict roots trace back to Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, which transformed the countries from allies to bitter enemies. As Britannica reported, "Once allies—from 1948 to 1979—Israel and Iran became bitter enemies after the Iranian Revolution of 1979, in which the new, anti-colonial Islamic regime blamed the United States and Israel for the region's greatest grievances".
The situation intensified dramatically when the United States joined Israel's military campaign on June 22, with American forces conducting precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. According to the Pentagon, these attacks "completely and obliterated" Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities.
The Ceasefire Framework
Trump's ceasefire proposal outlined a carefully choreographed sequence designed to gradually de-escalate tensions. Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump declared: "Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World".
The agreement, negotiated via Qatar's mediation, called for Iran to cease hostilities first, followed by Israel after a 12-hour interval. As CNN reported, Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani played a crucial role in securing Iran's consent to the ceasefire terms.
According to a senior White House official who spoke to CNN, "Israel agreed to the ceasefire on the condition that Iran stop its strikes" within Israeli territory. The negotiations involved direct communication between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while US Vice President J.D. Vance coordinated details with the office of the Qatari Prime Minister.
Immediate Violations Mar Ceasefire Start
The ceasefire faced immediate challenges as both sides accused each other of violations within hours of its implementation. Iranian missiles struck Beersheba in southern Israel at 5:40 AM, just two hours before the 7:00 AM ceasefire deadline, killing four civilians and injuring 22 others. The Times of Israel reported that "Two missiles were fired at Beersheba in a salvo at 5:40 a.m., with one being intercepted and another striking the sixth floor of an apartment complex in the southern city, causing extensive destruction".
Israeli emergency services identified three of the fatalities as a woman in her 40s, a man in his 40s, and a man in his 20s. The missile directly hit reinforced safe rooms designed to protect civilians during ballistic missile attacks, though these shelters are not designed to withstand direct strikes from large explosive warheads.
In response to the Iranian missile attack, Israel conducted a retaliatory strike on a radar installation in Babolsar, north of Tehran. According to Netanyahu's office, Israel "refrained from additional attacks" following a direct conversation with President Trump.
Trump's Unprecedented Public Rebuke
President Trump displayed unusual public anger toward both countries Tuesday morning, using profanity to express his frustration with the ceasefire violations. "We have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*** they're doing," Trump told reporters while departing for a NATO summit.
Trump specifically targeted Israel in his criticism, stating
"Israel has to calm down" and posting on Truth Social: "ISRAEL, DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS" in what appeared to be a real-time attempt to prevent further Israeli retaliation.
The president warned that additional Israeli strikes would constitute a "major violation" of the ceasefire agreement.
As The Hill reported, "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel 'refrained from additional attacks' against Iran due to a call with President Trump on Tuesday morning".
A White House source provided a brief readout of the call, stating: "President Trump was exceptionally firm and direct with Prime Minister Netanyahu about what needed to happen to sustain the ceasefire".
Casualties and Humanitarian Impact
The 12-day conflict extracted a significant human toll on both sides. Iran's Health Minister Mohammad-Reza Zafar Gandhi reported that Israeli strikes across Iran resulted in 606 deaths and 5,332 injuries. The minister described the past 24 hours as witnessing the "most horrific attacks and aggressions" by Israel since the conflict began.
Israeli casualties were comparatively lower but still significant, with Israel's Health Ministry reporting 28 fatalities and 3,238 injuries since the onset of the conflict. The disparity in casualties reflects the different nature of the attacks, with Israel conducting precision airstrikes while Iran primarily used ballistic missiles and drones.
The conflict prompted massive civilian displacement, with millions fleeing Tehran as Israeli airstrikes intensified. Channel News Asia reported that the war "saw millions flee Tehran and prompted fears of further escalation in the war-torn region".
Netanyahu Claims Victory Despite Ongoing Tensions
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the operation a "historic victory," stating that Israel had "achieved great historical achievements and placed itself on a par with the world powers". In a statement to his security cabinet, Netanyahu claimed Israel had accomplished all its war objectives, including "removing the threat of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs".
"Israel has neutralized a dual immediate threat – in the nuclear and ballistic missile arenas," Netanyahu's office stated. The Israeli leader also claimed his forces had "successfully impaired Iran's military leadership and numerous government facilities while gaining control over the skies of Tehran".
However, Netanyahu issued a stern warning about ceasefire compliance, declaring that "Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire". The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) kept security restrictions in place even after the ceasefire announcement, suggesting continued vigilance about potential Iranian retaliation.
Iran's Conditional Acceptance and Denials
Iran's response to the ceasefire was more cautious and conditional. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi initially stated there was "no agreement" on any ceasefire, writing on social media platform X: "As of now, there is NO 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations".
However, Araghchi later clarified Iran's position, stating: "Provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards". The Iranian Foreign Minister emphasized that "The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian took a more conciliatory tone, stating that "Iran will maintain the ceasefire unless the Zionist regime acts first," according to the state-linked outlet Nour News. Pezeshkian added that "Tehran is prepared for discussions and to advocate for the rights of the Iranian people through negotiation".
Iran denied Israeli accusations of ceasefire violations, with officials claiming that Israeli attacks continued for an hour and a half beyond the designated ceasefire start time. Araghchi later thanked Iranian armed forces, stating they "responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute" at 4:00 AM local time.
Congressional Constitutional Crisis
Trump's decision to conduct military strikes against Iran without congressional approval has triggered what many lawmakers describe as a constitutional crisis. The unprecedented bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities has prompted bipartisan legislation aimed at restricting Trump's military authority in the Middle East.
Republican Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky broke with his party to join Democratic Representative Ro Khanna of California in introducing a War Powers Resolution specifically designed to prevent unauthorized military actions against Iran.
"This is not Constitutional," Massie declared on social media immediately following Trump's announcement of the strikes.
According to Context Corner, "The strikes, which Trump announced Saturday evening as having 'completely and totally obliterated' Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, have triggered immediate calls for congressional oversight and constitutional review from lawmakers who argue the president exceeded his executive authority".
Two classified briefings regarding Iran, scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, have been postponed until Thursday. NBC News reports that this will be the first briefing since the weekend strikes, to which all Congressional members are invited.
Qatar's Mediation Success
Qatar played a pivotal role in brokering the ceasefire agreement, leveraging its diplomatic relationships with both Iran and the United States. According to Reuters and CNN, "
Iran agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, delivering its message to the United States through Qatar".
The mediation process involved direct communication between Trump and Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. As reported by CNN sources,
"Trump then asked Qatar to persuade Iran to accept the ceasefire as well. US Vice President J. D. Vance coordinated the details with the office of the Qatari prime minister".
Qatar's success in mediating the agreement demonstrates the small Gulf nation's growing influence in Middle Eastern diplomacy. The country has previously played important roles in facilitating negotiations between various regional powers and has maintained diplomatic relationships with both Iran and Israel's key ally, the United States.
Nuclear Implications and Intelligence Uncertainties
The strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities represent a significant escalation in efforts to prevent Iran's nuclear program development. The US targeted three major facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. According to the Pentagon, these attacks were designed to "destroy Iran's nuclear program and ambitions".
However, questions remain about the effectiveness of these strikes. Despite Trump's claims of complete success, CNBC reported that "U.S. intelligence officials have acknowledged in recent days that they are uncertain about the current locations of much of Iran's enriched uranium. This uncertainty suggests that Iran may have moved or hidden significant portions of its nuclear materials before the attacks.
The Understanding War organization noted that "The IDF struck the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003". The strikes also reportedly killed Iranian nuclear scientist Sayyed Mohammad Reza Seddighi Saber, who led the SPND's Shahid Karimi Group working on "explosives-related projects".
Economic and Market Reactions
The ceasefire announcement had an immediate impact on global markets, particularly on oil prices. CNBC reported that "Oil prices have sharply decreased following Trump's statement that China is permitted to continue purchasing oil from Iran". Brent crude plummeted by 4% to $67 per barrel, while US crude oil dropped 5.79% to $65.54 per barrel.
Trump's social media post stating "China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran" suggested a potential relaxation of US sanctions pressure on the Islamic Republic.
This represents a significant shift in American policy toward Iran's oil exports, which have been a primary source of tension between the United States and Iran.
US stock markets showed optimism following the ceasefire announcement, with S&P 500 futures climbing 0.4% in late Monday trading. The positive market response reflected investor relief at the de-escalation of Middle Eastern tensions that had threatened to disrupt global energy supplies.
NATO Summit Context and International Response
The ceasefire announcement came as Trump prepared to attend a NATO summit in The Hague, where alliance members were expected to discuss collective defence and regional security issues. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte praised Trump's handling of the Iran situation, with messages showing Rutte commending Trump for achieving "a significant defence spending pact among NATO partners".
According to CNN, Rutte told Trump: "You are arriving into another major triumph in The Hague this evening; it wasn't straightforward, but we have successfully secured commitments from all to 5 percent". This reference to defence spending commitments suggests Trump used the Iran crisis to leverage greater financial contributions from NATO allies.
The international community has generally welcomed the ceasefire while expressing concerns about the precedent of unilateral military action. The strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities occurred without prior consultation with traditional US allies, raising questions about coordination within Western alliances.
Current Status and Monitoring Mechanisms
As of Tuesday evening, the ceasefire appears to be holding despite the early violations and mutual accusations. The Understanding War organization reported that "The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding despite both Israeli and Iranian claims of violations".
Both sides have established monitoring mechanisms to track compliance. Iran has not conducted attacks on Israel since approximately 3:25 AM ET on June 24, while Israel has not undertaken attacks on Iran since approximately 7:35 AM ET on June 24. This suggests that despite the early tensions, both countries are making efforts to maintain the ceasefire.
However, enforcement remains challenging given the lack of formal international monitoring mechanisms. The agreement relies primarily on direct communication between the parties and US diplomatic pressure rather than established peacekeeping frameworks.
Fragile Peace in a Volatile Region
The Israel-Iran ceasefire represents both a diplomatic achievement and a demonstration of the volatility that continues to characterize Middle Eastern geopolitics. Trump's ability to broker a rapid end to the conflict showcases American diplomatic influence, but the immediate violations highlight the deep-seated mistrust between the adversaries.
The agreement's success in the coming weeks will likely depend on several factors: continued US diplomatic engagement, restraint from both Israeli and Iranian military commanders, and the absence of provocative actions by proxy groups or third parties. The phased nature of the ceasefire, while designed to build confidence gradually, also creates multiple opportunities for misunderstanding and escalation.
The constitutional crisis in Washington adds another layer of complexity, as congressional challenges to Trump's military authority could constrain future US responses to ceasefire violations. This domestic political dynamic may embolden either Israel or Iran to test the boundaries of the agreement.
Future Implications and Regional Stability
The ceasefire's long-term viability faces significant challenges given the fundamental strategic differences between Israel and Iran. While both countries have stepped back from immediate military confrontation, the underlying issues that sparked the conflict remain unresolved.
Iran's nuclear program, despite the recent strikes, has not been eliminated. The uncertainty about the location of enriched uranium materials means Iran could potentially rebuild its capabilities over time. Israel's stated objective of permanently removing Iran's nuclear threat may prove challenging to achieve through military means alone.
The role of regional proxy groups also remains unclear. Neither Hezbollah in Lebanon nor other Iran-backed militias were directly involved in the 12-day war, but their potential for future escalation could threaten the ceasefire's stability.
The ceasefire agreement has created a precedent for direct US military intervention in Middle Eastern conflicts, which could influence future regional dynamics. Other countries in the region may adjust their strategic calculations based on America's demonstrated willingness to use force against Iran's nuclear program.