Trump’s Economic Approval Hits Record Low Amid Recession Fears and Tariff Fallout
President Donald Trump’s approval rating for his handling of the U.S. economy has plummeted to the lowest levels of his presidency, with multiple polls in the spring and summer of 2025 showing a sharp decline in public confidence amid his aggressive trade policies, stock market turbulence, and rising fears of a recession. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from April found only 37% of Americans approve of Trump's economic performance, a historic low that reflects widespread anxiety over inflation and the impact of his tariff-driven agenda on consumer prices and global markets.
This collapse in economic sentiment marks a significant challenge for a president who won re-election on the promise of an economic golden age but now faces a deeply pessimistic electorate. The downturn, tracked by pollsters like Gallup, Reuters, and YouGov, is attributed to the administration's unpredictable economic strategies, which have rattled investors, business leaders, and consumers alike.
A Crisis of Confidence
Recent polling data paints a grim picture of public perception regarding Trump's economic stewardship. The numbers represent a stark reversal from the relative confidence seen during his first term and even in the early days of his second.
A Gallup survey released in late March 2025 revealed that only 41% of Americans approved of his economic leadership, while a commanding 59% disapproved. This was a significant drop from his first term, during which his economic approval never fell below 45%.
The slide continued into April, with a Reuters/Ipsos survey showing his economic approval hitting a new low of 37%. By May, a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated his overall approval had dipped to 42%, with economic approval holding at a low 39%. These figures are echoed by The Economist's polling tracker with YouGov, which in June 2025 placed Trump's overall net approval rating at a deficit of 12 percentage points, with 41% approving of his performance and 53% disapproving.
This growing pessimism is not confined to one political party. While Democrats have long been critical, recent data show that dissatisfaction is spreading among Republicans as well, signaling a broad-based erosion of confidence in the administration's economic direction.
Democratic pollster Matt McDermott noted in March that Trump’s approval was “falling fast,” citing the polling data as evidence of eroding voter patience.
Tariffs and Turbulence
Analysts directly link the nosedive in economic confidence to President Trump’s aggressive and often erratic trade policies. His second term has been marked by the imposition of steep tariffs on major trading partners, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as the introduction of "secondary tariffs" that penalize third-party nations for trading with U.S. adversaries.
These policies have sparked widespread concerns about a potential trade war that could lead to higher consumer prices, disrupt global supply chains, and destabilize markets. An Associated Press-NORC poll in April found that about half of Americans believe Trump's trade policies will cause prices to rise "a lot," with another 30% expecting prices to go up "somewhat".
The administration has remained defiant in the face of this criticism. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly dismissed stock market volatility, labeling corrections as "healthy" and "normal." At the same time, the president has insisted that a "transition period" is necessary as his economic strategies take hold.
However, the warnings from business leaders have been stark. According to reports, the CEOs of America's largest retailers, including Walmart and Target, privately cautioned the president that his trade policies could disrupt supply chains, raise prices, and lead to empty shelves.
Markets React to Uncertainty
While financial markets initially celebrated Trump's 2024 election victory, the enthusiasm has since evaporated. The S&P 500 index, a key benchmark for major American companies, is now trading below its pre-election level, a clear sign of investor anxiety.
The primary driver of this market downturn is the concern that the administration's tariffs will drive up costs, squeeze corporate profit margins, and ultimately hinder economic expansion. Business leaders, facing what The Economist describes as "significant economic unpredictability," are postponing investments and issuing cautious warnings about future profits.
The turbulence of Trump's second term stands in contrast to his first four years in office, when the S&P 500 surged by nearly 70% despite political turmoil. The current economic climate is vastly different, with market stability giving way to persistent volatility fueled by the administration's trade agenda.
Recession Fears Grip the Nation
The combination of tariffs, market instability, and rising prices has fueled a significant increase in recession fears among the American public. According to a Reuters poll, nearly 75% of U.S. adults are worried about a potential recession. A separate AP-NORC poll found that half of the respondents were "extremely" or "very" concerned about the U.S. economy entering a recession in the coming months.
This anxiety has driven consumer sentiment to its lowest point in 12 years, a worrying indicator for future economic activity.
More than half of respondents (56%) in the Reuters poll described Trump's retooling of the economy as "too erratic," a sentiment shared by about one in four Republican voters.
This widespread concern reflects a fundamental disconnect between the administration's promises and the public's lived economic reality. Trump began his second term promising that "incomes will soar, inflation will completely disappear, jobs will return robustly, and the middle class will thrive like never before". Instead, issues like inflation and employment remain top concerns for voters grappling with economic uncertainty.
A Tale of Two Terms
The current economic approval ratings are particularly striking when compared to Trump's first term. His economic management was often seen as a political strength, with a CNBC All-America Economic Survey from December 2019 showing 49% of Americans approving of his handling of the economy—a 17-point swing into positive territory at the time.
Throughout his first term, his economic approval in Gallup polls never dipped below 45%. The current figures, hovering in the high 30s and low 40s, represent a significant departure from that historical strength and signal a major political vulnerability for the president.
While his overall approval ratings remain higher than those of his predecessor, Joe Biden, during the latter half of his term, the negative trend in economic perception is a serious warning sign for the administration.
Florida Atlantic University professor Kevin Wagner cautioned that while a single poll does not define a trend, the consistently low ratings signal trouble for the administration.
An Economic Crossroads
As President Trump navigates the second year of his second term, he stands at a critical economic crossroads. The public's confidence in his ability to manage the economy is at an all-time low, driven by tangible fears about the real-world consequences of his policies. The administration's assertion that current market turmoil is merely a "transition period" has yet to reassure a worried public or anxious investors.
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the administration's aggressive trade strategies can deliver on their promises of long-term economic strength or if they will push the nation toward the recession that a majority of Americans fear. The president's ability to reverse the sharp decline in his economic approval ratings may well depend on his willingness to moderate his approach or, alternatively, on the economy's ability to weather the storm he has created.
For now, the data is clear: the economic optimism that once buoyed Trump's political fortunes has been replaced by deep-seated pessimism. Restoring that confidence will be one of the most significant challenges of his presidency, with implications not only for the economy itself but for the political landscape heading into the 2026 midterm elections.