Trump's Gaza Gambit..How the President-Elect Pushed for Ceasefire
In a surprising turn of events, President-elect Donald Trump has emerged as a key player in brokering the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, ending 15 months of devastating conflict in Gaza. As the deal was announced on Wednesday, both Trump and outgoing President Joe Biden claimed credit for the breakthrough, highlighting the complex dynamics at play in Middle East diplomacy.
The Final Push
According to sources close to the negotiations, Trump's involvement in the ceasefire talks intensified following his election victory in November 2024. His incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, joined ongoing discussions in Doha, Qatar, working alongside Biden's seasoned negotiator, Brett McGurk.
A senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously, described McGurk's and Witkoff's collaboration as a "fruitful partnership," noting that negotiations intensified over the past four days.
While unusual, given the political rivalry between Trump and Biden, this bipartisan effort proved crucial in advancing the deal.
Pressure on Netanyahu
One of the key factors in Trump's influence appears to be his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The New York Times reported that Witkoff helped put pressure on Netanyahu earlier in the week, potentially urging the Israeli leader to make necessary compromises.
A diplomat briefed on the ceasefire negotiations told The Washington Post that Trump's team placed "real pressure" on Israeli negotiators to accept the terms.
This pressure was likely bolstered by Trump's warnings of "hell to pay" if his inauguration didn't reach a deal on January 20
"The ironic reality is that at a time of heightened partisanship even over foreign policy, the deal represents how much more powerful and influential U.S. foreign policy can be when it's bipartisan," said Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Trump's Motivations
While Trump has long positioned himself as a staunch supporter of Israel, his push for a ceasefire seems driven by a combination of factors. Analysts suggest that Trump's grand diplomatic vision for the Middle East, which includes building upon the 2020 Abraham Accords and encouraging normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, played a significant role.
The prolonged conflict in Gaza, with its staggering civilian casualties and humanitarian crisis, has damaged America's international reputation. Trump, known for his media savvy, likely recognized the potential for the conflict to tarnish his image as he prepares to re-enter the White House.
The Deal's Framework
The ceasefire agreement, set to begin on Sunday, January 19, closely resembles a proposal put forward by Biden in May 2024. It includes a six-week pause in hostilities, the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
In the initial phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages in exchange for approximately 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Israeli troops are expected to withdraw from populated areas of Gaza, including the Netzarim Corridor.
Reactions and Implications
Trump wasted no time in claiming credit for the deal, writing on social media: "This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans and our Allie.”
While acknowledging the collaboration with Trump's team, Biden emphasized that the agreement was reached within "the precise contours" of his May proposal. When asked who deserved more credit for the deal, Biden responded with visible irritation, "Is that a joke?"
The families of Israeli hostages have expressed cautious optimism, with some giving Trump partial credit. In a statement, they wrote, "We feel hopeful that under President Trump's leadership, every last hostage will come home.”
Challenges Ahead
While the ceasefire agreement marks a significant breakthrough, substantial challenges remain. The devastation in Gaza is immense, with over 46,000 Palestinians killed and much of the territory in ruins.
The international community must mobilize significant resources for reconstruction and humanitarian aid. Moreover, the political landscape in both Israel and the Palestinian territories remains complex. Netanyahu's political future is uncertain, and the Palestinian Authority's role in post-conflict Gaza is yet to be determined.
Looking Forward
As Trump prepares to take office on January 20, his administration will face the daunting task of implementing the ceasefire agreement and navigating the broader implications for Middle East peace. The success or failure of this deal could set the tone for Trump's foreign policy in his second term.
Nancy Okail, head of the U.S.-based Center for International Policy, noted that the acceptance of the deal in the face of Trump's insistence "ironically shows how effective actual pressure can be in changing Israeli government.”
As the region holds its breath for the ceasefire to take effect, the world watches to see if this agreement will lead to lasting peace or prove to be another temporary respite in the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.