Trump’s in Middle East ..Business or politics ?
President’s Gulf Visit Prioritizes Trillion-Dollar Investments Over Traditional Diplomacy
President Donald Trump arrived in the Middle East on Monday, May 12, launching a four-day tour through Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Unlike previous presidential visits focused on diplomacy or peace initiatives, Trump’s trip is aimed at securing over $1 trillion in business agreements, spanning aircraft, nuclear energy, artificial intelligence, and arms sales, according to senior administration officials and reporting by The New York Times.
“Visiting the Middle East at this moment is more focused on economic interests than on strategy,” said Dennis B. Ross, a veteran Middle East peace negotiator now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in an interview with The New York Times.
The president’s ambitious agenda comes as the region faces acute crises, including the ongoing war in Gaza and escalating nuclear tensions with Iran. Yet, Trump’s itinerary notably omits Israel and Iran, underscoring his preference for deal-making with Gulf monarchies over direct engagement with the region’s most volatile disputes.
Deals Over Diplomacy
Trump’s visit marks his first major international trip of his second term and echoes his 2017 Middle East tour, which was similarly characterized by lavish ceremonies and major business announcements. This time, the president’s stated goal is to unveil deals worth more than $1 trillion, with Saudi Arabia alone pledging $600 billion in U.S. investments during Trump’s presidency- a figure many economists view as highly optimistic.
“President Trump desires the announcement of increased Gulf investments in the U.S. He envisions a prominent display at a meeting illustrating where these funds could be allocated, along with projections of their impact on job creation and his significant initiative concerning domestic manufacturing,” said Robert Young, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, to the BBC.
The United Arab Emirates has also committed to a $1.4 trillion investment package over the next decade, focusing on key sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing.
While these headline figures are eye-catching, experts caution that they far exceed the total assets of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, estimated at $925 billion, much of which is already tied up in domestic projects. Steffen Callen, a former International Monetary Fund mission chief to Saudi Arabia, told The New York Times, “I don’t see how they get close to $600 billion, let alone $1 trillion”.
Wall Street and Silicon Valley in Riyadh
Trump’s arrival in Riyadh coincides with a central Saudi-U.S. investment forum, drawing CEOs from prominent American firms, including IBM, BlackRock, Citigroup, and Qualcomm. The event showcases joint ventures and procurement agreements, including purchasing American weapons and goods, further entwining the U.S. and Gulf economies.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator with close ties to the government, told the BBC, “These agreements will further intertwine the economies of Saudi Arabia and the U.S., involving joint ventures within both nations and procurement of American weapons and goods.”
The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) already holds stakes in major U.S. companies such as Uber, Electronic Arts, and Lucid Motors. The UAE’s investment ambitions, announced after a March meeting between UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan and President Trump, are similarly broad.
Ethical Questions and Personal Business Ties
The Trump family’s business interests in the Gulf have drawn scrutiny. The New York Times reports that Trump’s family is currently involved in six pending agreements: one with a Saudi-owned real estate firm, another with a cryptocurrency initiative linked to the UAE, and a third with a new golf and luxury villa project supported by the Qatari government.
A particularly controversial aspect of the trip is the reported offer from Qatar’s royal family of a luxury Boeing 747 8 aircraft, valued at $400 million, as a potential gift for use as Air Force One or as a donation to Trump’s presidential library. The White House press secretary stated that any agreement would adhere to legal standards, while Qatari officials said the proposal remains under consideration.
“This proposed arrangement raises significant ethical questions, especially since Mr. Trump could utilize the $400 million aircraft post-presidency as a donation to his presidential library,” The New York Times reported, citing American officials familiar with the situation.
Gaza, Iran, and Shifting Alliances
Trump’s focus on business comes as the Middle East grapples with severe security and humanitarian crises. The war in Gaza has intensified, with Israel escalating military operations following the breakdown of a ceasefire. Over 52,000 people have been killed and 1.9 million displaced in Gaza since October 2023, according to Reuters and UN figures. The U.S. president has opted not to visit Israel, reflecting both the complexity of the conflict and his reluctance to become directly involved in mediation without a prospect of a breakthrough.
“Normalizing relations with Israel presents a far greater challenge than merely rolling out the red carpet for President Trump and proclaiming investment agreements,” said Robert Mogielnicki, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, to Reuters.
Negotiations for Saudi-Israeli normalization, once a primary U.S. diplomatic goal, have stalled amid the Gaza conflict. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accused Israel of genocide, and prospects for a breakthrough remain remote until the war subsides.
Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program continues to worry both the Gulf states and Israel. Trump’s administration has kept details of ongoing nuclear talks with Iran under wraps, seeking to avoid disrupting sensitive negotiations currently taking place in Oman.
U.S.–Gulf Relations: Business, Security, and Global Competition
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar collectively control trillions in global assets and have become increasingly influential in international finance and diplomacy. However, their foreign policies have diverged from Washington’s in recent years, with the development of deeper ties to China, Russia, and Iran, even as the U.S. remains their primary defense partner.
“Trump enjoys significant trust from the Saudi leadership, a bond established during his first term, a period characterized by substantial arms agreements and unwavering U.S. support for bin Salman, even amid global condemnation following the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi operatives in Istanbul,” Reuters reported.
The Gulf monarchies value Trump’s transactional approach, noting his reluctance to lecture on human rights or democracy. This has made him a favored partner for leaders like Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who view the president’s visits as validation of their rising status on the world stage.
Red Carpets and Realpolitik
Trump's visits are marked by celebrations like sword dances, red carpets, and medal presentations. In 2017, his image was projected onto Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel, and he was welcomed with honors typically reserved for royalty. This week’s trip will feature similar displays, with Gulf leaders eager to showcase their countries’ wealth and strategic importance.
“Every aspect of the Saudi visit was designed to impress and charm the president, and Trump appeared to appreciate the flattery,” wrote Jonathan Lemire, who covered the 2017 trip for The Atlantic.
“America First” and Economic Messaging
Trump’s pursuit of Gulf investments is closely tied to his “America First” agenda. Administration officials argue that these deals will boost U.S. manufacturing, create high-paying jobs, and demonstrate the effectiveness of Trump’s economic policies.
Steven Cheung, White House Communications Director, claimed the president has already secured over $5 trillion in new investments in the U.S. economy, stimulating manufacturing and job growth. However, the U.S. economy recently experienced its first quarterly contraction in three years, partly due to Trump’s import tariffs and global trade disruptions.
The Shadow of 2017 and the Qatar Crisis
The current tour is haunted by the memory of Trump’s 2017 visit, which coincided with the onset of the Qatar crisis- a blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt over Qatar’s alleged support for Islamists and ties to Iran. Trump initially sided with the blockading countries, accusing Qatar of funding terrorism, before later praising the nation as a partner. The crisis ended just before President Biden took office in 2021.
The China Factor
Beneath the spectacle, the U.S. is seeking to reassert its influence in a region where China’s economic footprint is expanding rapidly. Beijing’s growing role in energy, infrastructure, and renewables, especially through Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan, poses a challenge to Washington’s traditional dominance.
Saudi and UAE officials are expected to press Trump to relax U.S. regulations that have made foreign investment in critical infrastructure more difficult, even as China courts Gulf capital for its own projects.
Uncertain Outcomes, Enduring Challenges
As Trump’s visit unfolds, the ultimate impact of his business-first approach remains uncertain. While the president is likely to announce a flurry of deals and investment commitments, many may be repackaged or tentative, as has been the case in previous summits. The region’s most pressing crises- Gaza, Iran, and shifting alliances- will persist beyond the red carpets and signing ceremonies.
“A secure and stable Middle East translates to increased prosperity for our partner nations and the United States,” a White House spokesperson told The Atlantic.
Analysts suggest that any lasting diplomatic breakthroughs, such as Saudi-Israeli normalization or a resolution to the Gaza conflict, will require sustained engagement and a willingness to confront the region’s complex realities-challenges that may not be addressed by business deals alone.
Summary
President Trump’s Middle East trip highlights a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities, with economic interests and personal business ties now taking precedence over traditional diplomacy and conflict resolution. As Gulf leaders roll out the red carpet, the world watches to see whether the promised investments materialize and if Trump’s transactional approach can deliver stability in a region defined by uncertainty and upheaval