US-India Relations Plummet Amid Tariff Spat and Russia Ties, Testing Trump-Modi Partnership

Relations between the United States and India have reached their lowest point in decades, as escalating trade tensions and sharp policy disagreements overwhelm the once-celebrated personal rapport between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The diplomatic rift, which crystallized with a sweeping 25 percent US tariff on Indian exports and threats of even harsher penalties, marks a dramatic reversal for what was hailed as a blossoming partnership at the start of 2025.

How the Fallout Began?

In January 2025, Modi was one of the first world leaders to visit Trump at the White House—heralding a new era of cooperation. The leaders’ “bromance,” built on joint rallies and mutual support, appeared strong. Fast-forward six months, and Trump has imposed a punitive 25 percent tariff on Indian goods, wielded daily threats of harsher action, and publicly pressured New Delhi to halt lucrative oil purchases from Russia.

Trump’s administration linked the new tariffs to India’s strategic energy relationship with Moscow, citing “national security” and expressing frustration that India’s continued oil imports “finance Russia’s war in Ukraine.” The White House, while offering deals to traditional rivals Pakistan and Bangladesh, has maintained a hard line with India, reflecting mounting impatience with India’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy.

Modi Defiant as Trade Deal Unravels

The tariff crisis grew out of months-long but faltering trade negotiations between the world’s first and fifth-largest economies. Delhi’s hopes for a deal that would cap US tariffs at 15 percent faded as talks stalled over issues like e-commerce, data flows, and agricultural access. US officials insisted on deeper concessions, while Indian negotiators tried to protect politically sensitive sectors, especially micro, small, and medium enterprises that employ millions.

Speaking at a public rally, Modi declared, “From now on, our purchasing criteria will be clear: we will only buy products made by the hard work of Indians.” He rejected the demand to stop Russian oil imports, emphasizing India’s need to “protect our MSMEs and agriculture” in the face of foreign pressure. Indian diplomats have described Trump’s tactics as “blunt coercion” and “gross interference in Indian foreign policy”.

US Leverages Tariffs, Seeks Big Strategic Shifts

Trump’s tariff regime has broader implications, including secondary penalties on Indian purchases of oil from Russia, and warnings that further US actions could follow if India maintains its “strategic autonomy.” Analysts note that, unlike earlier US administrations, Trump is penalizing India for seeking a balanced approach to global alliances. “US-India relations are at their lowest point in decades,” trade economist Biswajit Dhar told Al Jazeera.

The latest round of tariffs is not limited to one sector. Pharmaceuticals, a major Indian export, are reportedly in line for tariffs reaching 250%, while previous moves threatened to penalize Indian defense deals and technology collaborations. Trump has described India’s economy as “dead” and accused its government of “unfair trade barriers,” while insisting that more tariffs are possible “within 24 hours” if no progress is made on bilateral issues.

Geopolitical Tensions Rise

The tariff fight is exacerbated by deepening divides over India’s continued oil and military trade with Russia, and its prominent role in BRICS, grouping it with Russia and China. Trump has threatened to penalize any BRICS country he deems engaged in “anti-American” policies. His administration points to India’s large volume of Russian energy imports—alleging these activities undermine Western sanctions. Indian officials counter that their energy policy is “steady and time-tested,” pointing to autonomy as a core tenet of national strategy.

Tensions have also spilled into broader strategic frameworks. US-India disagreement is casting doubt on the future of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an Indo-Pacific alliance with Australia and Japan intended to check China’s regional influence. Initial plans for a Trump visit to the Quad leaders’ summit in India now appear at risk, with both sides hesitating to commit without tangible progress on bilateral or regional agreements.

Trump’s Outreach to Pakistan Adds to Indian Frustration

The recent improvement in US-Pakistan relations, including Trump’s hosting of Pakistan’s army chief at the White House, has fueled indignation in New Delhi. While Trump praised Modi as a “fantastic man,” he also publicly credited Pakistan for its role in brokering a fragile ceasefire after cross-border hostilities with India earlier this year.

A day following the Pakistan meeting, Trump announced a deal for US-Pakistan oil cooperation, remarking, “maybe they’ll be selling oil to India someday”—comments that added to the sense of shifting US priorities and a transactional approach to regional relations.

Immigration, Human Rights, and Domestic Politics

The souring of US-India ties is unfolding amidst domestic controversies. Images of Indian nationals detained and deported from the United States under new immigration policies have sparked outrage in India, further complicating the Modi government’s balancing act.

Demonstrations in India have criticized Washington for what is seen as hypocrisy—pressuring New Delhi on Russian trade while European Union countries continue to deal with Russia themselves. Indian officials have vowed to safeguard the country’s interests and “economic security,” with the Ministry of External Affairs calling US moves “unjustified and unreasonable”.

What’s Next for Two Troubled Allies?

Diplomatic experts warn that the rupture marks a “wake-up call” for both nations. Despite the personal chemistry between Trump and Modi, structural mismatches—ranging from “America First” versus “Make in India” trade philosophies, to divergent approaches on global crises—have created a lasting wedge.

US analysts caution that Trump’s unpredictable style means the current freeze could “change overnight,” but also that the old bipartisan consensus on building a robust strategic partnership is at risk of breakdown. For New Delhi, the challenge is to protect core economic interests, preserve strategic autonomy, and manage domestic pressures, all while navigating the demands of a shifting world order.

For now, with hopes for a breakthrough receding, both governments face rising economic costs and diminishing public goodwill. As Al Jazeera analyst Michael Kugelman concludes, “Because India is trying to balance its Russia ties, Trump is penalizing New Delhi for upholding an equilibrium that’s at the heart of its foreign policy—something the Biden administration didn’t do”. Unless negotiations are revived or a major diplomatic reset occurs, the fallout could reshape not just US-India relations, but the entire landscape of Indo-Pacific security and global trade